Nearly one year ago, a devastating snowstorm struck TCU and the city of Fort Worth. Pipelines burst, roads closed, homes lost power and TCU canceled classes for an entire week. As cold weather is in the forecast, the TCU community is asking: What are the chances a storm of this magnitude will happen again?

It’s no secret Texas weather is unpredictable, but a ‘snowpocolypse’ like we experienced in 2021 is rare. “It is unlikely, given the scale of what we saw last year, for a storm like that to occur again,” said Michael Slattery, chair of the department of environmental sciences and weather professor.

Last year’s storm was unprecedented; out of the 254 counties in the state of Texas, all 254 of them were under winter storm warnings during the week of February 13-17, 2021.

To determine the probability, scientists look at the return period, which refers to the record of how many times a weather event occurs over a long period of time. “There’s less than a 1 percent chance of it [the storm] occurring again on that scale, but there is still a chance,” Slattery said.

The National Weather Service is predicting this Texas winter will be slightly warmer and drier than last year. But short-term local forecasts are currently showing a chance of snow as early as Thursday.

TCU is ready for anything. “Preparing for winter weather starts early,” said Sean Taylor, director of Emergency Management at TCU. “Last year was eye-opening, and we’ve made changes to our winter weather plan.”

Every county in Texas was under a winter storm warning during the week of February 13-17, 2021. Photo by Eric Sasadeusz

TCU has plans in place for increased communication with off-campus students via TCU Alert, the mass communication program that uses texts, phone calls and emails to communicate with students and faculty.

“We are now utilizing a feature where students can respond to TCU Alerts and tell us exactly what is wrong so we can directly accommodate to their needs,” Taylor said. Previously, TCU Alerts did not have the capability to receive responses. This feature is mostly geared toward off-campus students who could possibly lose power or water, and need a place to stay during tumultuous weather. However, on-campus students will still receive Alerts and updates as cold weather persists.

“We have anticipated people may need to stay on campus and have added more resources and equipment to accommodate their needs,” said Taylor. The university has increased sheltering capabilities for all students and the families in surrounding areas; locations include the Recreation Center, which was a refuge for those who lost power in last year’s snow week.

“Snow is always possible,” Taylor said. “I recommend to always have water on hand, know their emergency contacts and make sure to have close contact with at least one person in your neighborhood.”

To read about TCU’s winter weather policy, head to Horned Frog Hazards.