"Check out China"
International business professor Bill Moncrief imagines the world's economic landscape in 2020.
by Kathryn Hopper
Bill Moncrief, senior associate dean and Charles F. and Alann P. Bedford Professor of International Business, said that the U.S. will still be the world's top market. But China will be close.
For companies looking to grow international sales in the coming decade, Neeley Professor Bill Moncrief has this advice: Check out China.
Moncrief, senior associate dean and Charles F. and Alann P. Bedford Professor of International Business, told about 100 Neeley alums who attended a September networking event at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, that the Far East, specifically China, will provide the major growth in consumer markets.
“In 10 years, the United States will still be the No. 1 market, but in 20 years China will be close and in 30 years, China will be the world’s major player,” said Moncrief, whose speech was titled “Do You have 2020 Vision.”
He pointed out that the United States has a population of 300 million compared with China’s 1.2 billion.
“A large portion of China’s population is in the interior, which is still feudal compared to the coastal areas which are developed,” he said. “Coastal China has 105 cities with a population of more than a million. They have a viable market now of 250 million now, but as more infrastructure gets built, that number will increase.”
He also said the Chinese government is very savvy in dealing with foreign corporations.
“They’re doing something very smart,” he said. “They’re telling corporations – You want to build a plant here – great, but you’ve got to also build the road and other infrastructure.”
He said India is also a growing market, but that country’s unwieldy government slows down development.
“The Indians can’t make change as quickly as the Chinese,” he said. “They’re mired in bureaucracy.”
He said other Asian countries including Indonesia, currently the fourth-largest market in the world, and Vietnam continue to grow, but sees Japan’s fortunes falling.
“Japan has lots of problems,” he said. “The United States has natural resources, but Japan really doesn’t.”
He said the Indian Ocean Basin, from the Eastern Coast of Africa through Pakistan and Afghanistan, would likely remain global trouble spots as radical Islam continues to thrive in the region.
In Africa, he said the northern portion of the continent will benefit from more stable governments and increased tourism from Europeans, but the southern and central regions will be mired in political unrest and diseases including AIDS.
“Africa will be more of a mess than potential,” he said.
Europe, with its high labor costs and costly goods, has reached economic equilibrium, he said, but added that Russia, with its vast oil reserves under Siberia, is the region’s wild card.
In the Americas, he said Mexico’s drug cartels continue to be a problem, sapping economic potential.
“Mexico is the new Columbia because of the U.S. drug trade,” he said. “It’s not going to be an easy fix.”
He also said the United States may be losing influence in South America as countries such as Brazil and Chile strengthen ties to other national including Portugal and Spain, South America’s Colonial powers.
In the United States, he sees a comeback of sorts for manufacturing, as rising transportation and labor costs around the world make offshore factories less lucrative.
“Will manufacturing come back like it was? No, It will be different, more automated and robotic so there’ll be fewer jobs,” he said.
And as world population grows, he sees continued competition for commodities including the most basic – water.
“Water is going to be critical,” he said. “Water is going to become a strategic advantage. It’s going to be like oil. There’s not going to be enough to go around.”
Moncrief, the 2009 Alumni Professor of the Year, teaches international marketing to MBA and undergraduate students, basic marketing, and a marketing core class for the EMBA program. He holds a B.S. in political science and an MBA from the University of Mississippi, and a Ph.D. from Louisiana State University.
Now in his 28th year of teaching at TCU, he said he’s now teaching the children of former students.
“The provost’s office won’t let me say who had the higher grades,” he added.